Q1: Understanding climate related visitor response
Econometric analysis of long runs of time series data will be conducted for ‘honeypot’ locations (for example, historical garden settings such as Tatton Park or coastal resorts such as Blackpool) or target landscapes (uplands and coastal zone), matching the two where possible. The availability of long run data will determine where analysis can take place. This research question will seek to determine how changes in climate, distinct from other variables, have affected visitor behaviour in the region over the past 30 years. The research will also attempt to match detailed daily weather conditions to recreation data in order to discern short-term deviations, i.e. day-to-day visitor responses. The functions and data derived from this initial research activity will be used to inform the research on future behaviour in the face of socio-economic and climate change.

Q2: Exploring visitor response to climate change
Using high and low UKCIP02 scenarios (detailed to a 5km resolution), Q2 will begin to explore how visitor behaviour may be affected by climate change in the years 2020 and 2050. Where appropriate, the latest downscaling techniques may be used to determine more ‘location-specific’ data concerning the main weather variables of interest. An assessment of climate related changes in visitor behaviour would then be made through both expert knowledge and the input of stakeholders.

Q3: Changes in tourist demand under two different socio-economic scenarios
Climate is only one variable affecting visitor behaviour, and socio-economic influences are likely to be much more significant. Therefore, once existing trends in tourism and recreation have been established, Q3 will address how these trends may change under different socio-economic scenarios. Two scenarios, developed for the REGIS2 project, will be utilised: regional enterprise and regional stewardship. REGIS2 used the UKCIP socio-economic scenarios as a guiding framework, these are then refined to create ‘regional’ scenarios. These scenarios ‘customised’ to the region are likely to be of more relevance and interest, to the project’s target stakeholders and intended audience.

Q4: Interaction of climate change and socio-economic change on regional visitor behaviour
This research question will examine the interaction between climate and socio-economic variables. An integrated assessment, employing storylines associated with a set of linked scenarios, will be undertaken. A consistent approach has been used for the linking process, with the project looking at:

1. Regional enterprise with high emissions
2. Regional enterprise with low emissions (assumes the world moves towards a low carbon economy in the future)
3. Regional stewardship with high emissions (increased levels of demand management)
4. Regional stewardship with low emissions  

Q5: Influence of climate change on environmental capacity
There will be two scales of investigation relating to carrying capacity: regional and landscape. At the regional scale, a synoptic view of the region will explore physical and ecological capacity. Analysis of physical capacity will predominantly focus on the transport element with investigation of road traffic flows across the region and especially on key access routes to visitor destinations. More detailed work linked to the selected case studies, including road network analysis, will be conducted at the landscape scale (for example, the location of car parks and their impact on visitor loading).

Ecological capacity analysis will be informed by the work of REGIS2, and will focus on elements such as erodability of soils, vulnerability of coastlines, in combination with climate change impacts. From an original list of potential case studies, there will be assessment of four at a more detailed landscape scale.

These include:

1. Footpath erosion in the Lake District;
2. Moorland wildfires in the Peak District;
3. Climate change impacts on the Sefton Dune system;
4. Urban greenspace in Greater Manchester.

Q6: Case study analysis of costed adaptation responses in vulnerable locations
From the three case studies, one will be selected for detailed analysis of costed adaptation responses. In consultation with key stakeholders (especially landowners and local managers) adaptive measures, including demand management, will be identified. The costs and benefits of different options will then be quantified using the newly developed UKCIP Costings Methodology and other techniques described in Stage 5 of the UKCIP decision-making framework. As well as being able to recommend possible adaptation measures to policy makers and the tourism industry, assessment methodologies will be developed and tested, supported by a conceptual model with relationships quantified where possible. This methodology will be designed to be replicable in other regions and contexts.

Q7: Case study analysis of capacity building in less vulnerable locations
Research question 7 will analyse relevant policies and programmes to identify exemplar less vulnerable locations, especially those associated with Regional Park Resources. These will then be subject to a case study assessment, including the identification of adaptation and mitigation overlaps. Accessibility, traffic densities, vulnerability to climate change as well as other relevant issues will be addressed.

Q8: Interaction with related sectors especially farming, forestry, health and transport
The final research question will investigate the interaction between tourism and recreational activity under changed conditions with other related sectors. This preliminary investigation will exploit the findings from earlier research questions and the output from REGIS2, combined with a literature review and interviews with key regional stakeholders. Analysis will be closely synchronised with regional sectoral strategies i.e. Regional Forest Framework etc.